Boko Haram, Fulani Militia and The Avengers: 4 Alternative Scenarios For Nigeria’s Future, By Victor Oladokun

Posted: June 21, 2016 in Uncategorized

As a student of history, politics, and strategic foresight, I am convinced that there are four alternative future scenarios before us. The actions, inactions,
decisions, or the lack thereof, of our leaders will determine where Nigeria will be 10-20 years from now.

The choices we make are collectively ours.
SCENARIO 1: “Status Quo Jaga Jaga” – All we need to do is continue to live, lead, and govern the same old way, with no tangible changes at all. The end result will be the same status quo jaga jaga that we have become accustomed to for decades.

SCENARIO 2: “Rumble in the Jungle” – If Boko Haram and their Fulani militant cousins are not effectively disarmed and completely defeated, and if the religious mindsets and ideologies of our political and traditional elite remain the same, it essentially means Nigerians can no longer live in the same space as a united nation. Ultimately, if the killing sprees continue unabated, at some point, there will be a tipping point that forces Nigeria into an abyss from which it will be difficult to come out of.

SCENARIO 3: “Danfo Gedegbe Breakaway Republics” – Since 1960, Nigeria’s tribal and regional groupings have never had a truly honest discussion about the way forward. In the event that such a discussion takes place, it could lead at best to increased regional autonomy within a federating unit, or at worse, breakaway republics signifying the breakup of Nigeria. It has happened in the Soviet Union. It has happened in Yugoslavia. It is happening before our eyes in Libya, Iraq, and Syria. There is nothing to suggest that it cannot happen in Nigeria. Only a fool would suggest otherwise.

SCENARIO 4: “The Nigeria of Our Dreams” – the Nigeria of our dreams is one that is devoid of violent conflicts, tribal/religiously motivated killings, political oppression, corruption at the highest and lowest levels, justice, equal opportunity, brotherliness, good governance that benefits all and not a few; and a nation in which our faith in God brings out the best in us and compels us to be our brother’s keeper even though tribe and tongue may differ. Seeing the future before it arrives is not rocket science.

Simply put, Nigeria’s future will be pre-determined by the actions and decisions of our leaders. The future is simply the culmination of all the political, economic, religious, military, and security plans, strategies, decisions, and actions that we employ and deploy in the days, months, and years ahead.
May God Bless Nigeria and grant great wisdom to those who have been thrust into positions of authority.


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